Monday, October 4, 2010

NBA Pre-season: Middle of the Pack

Continuing on with our NBA rankings is the section for teams which could be headed for the playoffs, or the lottery. Most of these teams have the talent to win games, but can't be consider legitimate contenders for an NBA Championship.

20. New Jersey Nets
Even if they can somehow manage to steal Carmelo Anthony away from Denver (of which I still have a great deal of doubt) this is still a team that won just twelve games last season. Jay-Z's club added depth in underrated players, Jordan Farmar and Travis Outlaw, but are paying Troy Murphy $12 million this season, which might very well be the textbook definition of "overpaying". Devin Harris and Brook Lopez will continue to improve to the point that Jersey will add significant W's this season, but not enough to be any kind of a threat.

19. Charlotte Bobcats
While MJ's Bobcats do have a considerable amount of talent on their roster, they seem to lack motivation. Even though Stephen Jackson can still be a dynamic scorer, and Gerald Wallace has emerged as an All-Star, Charlotte still lacks quality big-men. Nazr Mohammed and DeSagana Diop both have their best years behind them, and the newly-acquired Kwame Brown will not help out with Charlotte's biggest need: a scorer in the post. This team may make the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference, but don't expect them to get out of the first round.

18. New York Knicks
Remember what I said about Troy Murphy? Well, in that textbook there should be a footnote reading "Also see: Amare Stoudemire." Stoudemire is a very good player, but he cannot carry an offense. I believe we will see the true value of Steve Nash when Amare struggles to find his way in an offense led by Raymond Felton. The Knicks, like the Bobcats, have a chance to sneak into a playoff spot in a top-heavy East, but they don't have the depth to contend.

17. Los Angeles Clippers
LA will be asking the same question as several other teams in the West: "Can our young, big-man stay healthy?" In the Clipper's case, this player is Power Forward, Blake Griffin, who missed all of last season with a knee injury. Many believe that Griffin can contend for Rookie of the Year (even though he is in his second season) if he can stay on the court. As a fan, I hope Griffin can last the whole season-- because he is entertaining to watch-- but he has had injury problems dating back to his college days at Oklahoma. Now that may only be two serious injuries in a span of three years, but one would have to consider if the trend will continue. The bottom line is if Griffin stays healthy the Clippers can make the playoffs; if not, they're back in the lottery.

16. Houston Rockets
The big-man trend continues in Houston with Yao Ming. The Rockets will limit their Center's playing time this season in an effort to cure him of the foot injuries that have plagued Yao's career. Even with limited playing time, Yao can still be effective, and having Kevin Martin for a whole season will be a definite boost (pun intended) for Houston's offense. The Rockets traded away Trevor Ariza, but Shane Battier is still one of the best defenders in the league, and Chase Budinger brings energy off of the bench. Look for the Rockets to quietly make an impact in the West.

15. Utah Jazz
Losing Carlos Boozer is going to be a major blow for Jerry Sloan's gang. Adding to Utah's difficulties is the fact they play in a fairly deep Northwest Division, where the only doormat team is Minnesota. That being said, the front office did an admirable job of re-tooling the roster by adding Al Jefferson (who also qualifies for that big-man question), giving Utah its first true Center in many seasons. I wasn't crazy about drafting Gordon Hayward in the first round, because I believe he will struggle while transitioning to the pros. But the Jazz still have quite possibly the best Point Guard in the league in Deron Williams, who is a perfect fit for Sloan's offense. Expect this team to drop off from last season, but still make the playoffs.

14. Milwaukee Bucks
The fate of this year's Bucks rests on the health of their young Center (is there an echo in here). If Andrew Bogut is fully recovered from the ghastly arm injury that kept him off Australia's roster for the World Championship, then Milwaukee could potentially nab the fourth or fifth spot in the East. Carlos Delfino quietly had a solid season last year, and who knows, maybe Michael Redd can contribute this year...it could happen. Even without a healthy Redd the Bucks still have great upside with John Salmons, and a more experienced Brandon Jennings. But a healthy Bogut will be the defining factor of whether other NBA teams truly need to fear the deer.

13. Memphis Grizzlies
A lot of analysts are down on the Grizz this season, which I am a bit surprised at. Memphis may be an extremely young team, but the vast majority of their young players have seen extensive playing time since entering the league. Marc Gasol has trimmed down in the off-season, while Zach Randolph is eyeing consecutive All-Star appearances. The Grizzlies were able to keep Rudy Gay from leaving via free agency, while adding Greivis Vasquez and Xavier Henry in the draft to compliment (and perhaps, one day replace) Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo. With the rest of the Southwest Division on the decline, I see no reason why Memphis could not make a legitimate push for a playoff spot.

12. Denver Nuggets
Even with all the turmoil and drama of whether Carmelo Anthony will be traded or not, Denver still has other problems to contend with. Their top three front-line players are all battling injuries (come to think of it; when is Kenyon Martin not battling injuries?) and trade rumors may have alienated J.R. Smith, who is not the most stable individual to begin with. I see a great deal of stress being put on Chauncey Billups this season, because Denver possesses a great deal of talent, but the soap opera atmosphere surrounding the team could be their undoing.

11. Phoenix Suns
I don't see the Suns regressing as much as they have been predicted to, but I do believe this team's window to win a championship has been shut. I am truly amazed at how effective Steve Nash still is, though the sad truth is he will only continue to get older, and won't have Amare to finish at the rim. The Suns already had too many players at the wings before they acquired Hedo Turkoglu, which means several forwards will be playing out of position. I don't expect Turkoglu or Grant Hill to contend with the elite big-men in the West, but I did like the drafting of Earl Clark. In three to four seasons, Clark and Robin Lopez could give Phoenix a true Power Forward-Center combination. This season, however, I see the Suns still winning around 47 games because of their offense, but they will go nowhere in the playoffs.

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