Sunday, October 10, 2010

NBA Pre-season: You're the Best, Around

We end our NBA rankings with the "favorites" for this upcoming season. Most of these teams in my top ten have a chance to bring home an NBA Championship, and all should, at the very least, make the playoffs.

10. San Antonio Spurs
The biggest problem for San Antonio is going to be age. Tim Duncan can't stay healthy forever, and Manu Ginobili is already showing the effects of his age and playing style. The Spurs do have some young talent with George Hill, DeJuan Blair, and Tiago Splitter (who looked impressive on Brazil's National Team), but the core of this team is a bit too long-in-the-tooth for me to consider them a genuine contender. It is also yet to be seen whether the trade rumors from the off-season will affect Tony Parker or not.

9. Atlanta Hawks
Even though Atlanta seemed to quit in the playoffs last season against Orlando, they still have one of the more talented teams in the East. Jeff Teague proved to be a reliable backup to Mike Bibby at the end of the season, and the Hawks managed to hold onto Joe Johnson in the off-season, even though they drastically overpaid for him. The issue I have with Atlanta is not their ability, but rather their mental strength. The implosion in the playoffs essentially cost Mike Woodson his job as head coach, and Jamal Crawford has very publicly been demanding a contract extension. The Hawks will make the playoffs, but they don't have the makeup of a champion.

8. Portland Trailblazers
This is it. This is the year Greg Oden stays healthy. I realize you are reading this and can't hear the lack of conviction in my voice, but you get the picture. The truth is I truly hope Oden can stay on the court this season, because he is a genuinely good guy, and has the ability to be a difference-maker for Portland. Even if Oden is still limited (or absent) the Blazers do have depth in the front-court, and the addition of Wesley Matthews will have an immediate impact on Portland's perimeter defense. The key for this team--like so many others--is going to be health. Brandon Roy was injured going into last season's playoff run, while Oden and Joel Przybilla both missed significant time at the Center position. If all their core players stay relatively healthy, Portland can contend.

7. Dallas Mavericks
The only significant move Dallas made was the acquisition of Tyson Chandler, who may not even start if Brendan Haywood continues to play well. I was very surprised at owner, Mark Cuban, who neglected to pursue any of the free agents on the market this off-season. I understand his first priority was re-signing Dirk Nowitzki, but I believe he had the opportunity to surround his All-Star with more talent. Swapping Josh Howard for Caron Butler last season was a wise decision--considering Butler's ability and Howard's off-the-court issues--but Jason Kidd is in the twilight of his career, while Shawn Marion and Jason Terry both showed signs of regression last season. The window is still open for the Mavs to win a title, but the road through the West will not be an easy one.

6. Orlando Magic
It will do Stan Van Gundy well to utilize Brandon Bass more this season. Rashard Lewis creates matchup problems at Power Forward but he has struggled since signing with Orlando, and has never been a good defender. Moving Lewis to his natural position at Small Forward would give the Magic more beef in the front-court, while still allowing the offense to work through Dwight Howard. The loss of Matt Barnes to the Lakers will significantly hurt Orlando, though, as he was the only player in the rotation to add any toughness to the team. I also still don't trust Vince Carter to perform at a high level in the playoffs, but if Howard can improve in the post (and stay out of foul trouble) all Vince will need to do is knock down open jumpshots. It will be difficult for Orlando to get past the top teams in the East, but if they do, Van Gundy's crew matches up well against most of the favorites in the West.

5. Boston Celtics
While Boston does have one of the more talented squads in the league, the front office seemed to overlook one simple fact this off-season: they are an old team that just kept getting older. I understand the need to re-sign Paul Pierce and have him retire as a Celtic, but the Big Three don't have many productive years left, and all of them--especially Kevin Garnett--are showing it. But instead of getting some fresh, new players, Boston aged itself even more by adding a pair of over-the-hill O'Neal's (Jermaine and Shaq) and brought back Delonte West, who wasn't even welcome in Cleveland. Even though I don't support the decisions the Celtics have made, I will not discount them, based on their recent success and the track records of their core players. I do not, however, see this team reaching the finals for a third time in four seasons.

4. Chicago Bulls
Chicago seems to be the "sexy" pick at the moment--and that scares me--but I believe they can live up to the hype. Carlos Boozer gives the Bulls a legitimate post-scorer, which they have not had since the days of Elton Brand. While Boozer did sustain a broken pinky finger, the injury does not appear to threaten his availability for the regular season. One off-season acquisition that will also have positive impact in the Windy City is the signing of Kyle Korver. Korver will extend defenses to the three-point arc, and allow Boozer more room to work in the paint, while also providing an outlet when Derrick Rose drives the lane. Chicago seems to have addressed their major needs in the off-season, and look primed to make a run this year.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder
My legs are still sore from how quickly I jumped on this team's bandwagon last season, but I don't plan on getting off anytime soon. Not only does OKC have my pick for this year's MVP, Kevin Durant, but the emergence of Serge Ibaka should allow the Thunder to play a more traditional lineup this season, which will be an asset in the playoffs. Last season the Thunder seemed to have the opposite problem as the Celtics; they were too young. Unlike Boston, OKC actually addressed the issue by bringing in veteran swingman, Morris Peterson, to mentor James Harden (who is a fellow lefty). I also approved of trading for the rights to Cole Aldrich on draft day, because his high-energy, bruising style of play will be a nice counter to Nenad Krstic's finesse at the Center position. If Durant continues to dominate,and Russell Westbrook can follow up on his momentum from being on Team USA, then the Thunder could make a legitimate run at a title.

2. Miami Heat
I'm not one to get caught up in hype, but when you look at the talent that's been assembled in Miami, it's hard to not get excited. Wade, Bosh, and James have all been perennial All-Stars since they came into the league, and while some may say their egos are too big to coexist on the same team, I beg to differ. What appears to be a distinct difference between these three and other superstar teammates--like Shaq and Kobe--is James, Wade, and Bosh seem to genuinely like each other, which could contribute extensively to their success. There has also been the criticism that none of them will want to share the ball, but all three showed a willingness to do so on Team USA two years ago. If you consider a gold medal to be a success, then I think that worked out pretty well for them. Now, there are still some question marks on the Heat, such as the starters at Point Guard and Center, but this team has talent beyond just Miami Thrice. We know Zydrunas Ilgauskas can play with LeBron because of their time together in Cleveland, and Mike Miller's shooting ability will be an asset for when defenses attempt double-teams. I know many people will be inclined to hate on the Heat because of the circumstances surrounding their acquisition of talent. The reality, however, is that this team is going to be successful, and they have an excellent chance of winning several championships.

1. Los Angeles Lakers
When you are the two-time defending champs, that puts you at the top of my list. The Lakers re-loaded this off-season by bringing in Steve Blake, Theo Ratliff, and Matt Barnes (who is like a young Ron Artest, but with a better jumpshot). Barnes is the key addition to the roster. His physical defense will help lighten the burden on the defensively-challenged, Pau Gasol. Interchanging Barnes and Artest--or having the two play at the same time--will also be crucial to the Lakers control of the paint until Andrew Bynum is fully healed (so he can get injured right before the playoffs for the fourth year in a row). The Lakers have essentially all their key players returning from last year's championship team (Derek Fisher, Lamar Odom, and Shannon Brown, to name a few), but the determining factor for this team will always be Kobe Bryant. If Kobe can maintain his level of play with all the bangs and bruises he has sustained over the past two seasons, then LA should find itself in the finals with a chance to complete Coach Phil Jackson's fourth three-peat.

So there you have it, the NBA season by the numbers. Now you don't even have to watch the games. But seriously, you should watch as much as you can, because my one prediction I'm sure will be correct, is this is going to be a memorable season.

1 comment:

  1. I like the breakdown. Fair and balanced.

    I DON'T LIKE THEIR PUNK ANTICS AND I DON'T LIKE HOW THEY HANDLED THEMSELVES BUT....

    I am going to pick the Heat to take it all. They have the athleticism and the talent and I believe they created for themselves a motivation beyond the ring...prove to everyone that they are the baddest regardless of what anyone else thinks about them as individuals. They want to start their dynasty immediately.

    THEIR PRIMARY DOWN FALL? EVEN AS SEASONED PLAYERS IN THE NBA, THEY ARE STILL IMMATURE.

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